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No-Buy January, Returns Surge & Your Valentine's Day Final Push
This week we're covering the "No-Buy January" trend hitting retailers, the $890B returns surge, TikTok's new fulfillment network, and why the next two weeks are critical for Valentine's Day success.
🛑 No-Buy January: The Trend Hitting Retailers
Millions
Americans Embracing
No-Buy January
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$890B
Returns Expected
in 2024-25
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Q1
Expected to be
Volatile for Retailers
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In 2026, millions of Americans are embracing "No-Buy January" to curb spending amid inflation — focusing only on essentials and building long-term habits. Retailers are feeling the pinch, with NRF data hinting at restrained spending.
📉 Not All Sectors Slump
Fitness and wellness categories are still firing on all cylinders. Resolution-driven shopping keeps these sectors strong at the beginning of the year.
Read: January Sales Slump Strategies →
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📦 "Returnuary" in Full Swing
"This is probably one of the busiest times of year" for returns. The NRF projects $890 billion in merchandise returns — make sure your reverse logistics is dialed in.
Read: Returnuary Trends →
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💡 Focus on Customer Retention
After the holidays, many consumers enter a "spending pause." Brands that double down on retention strategies — not just acquisition — will maintain engagement through the slow season.
Read: No-Buy January Trend →
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💕 Valentine's Day: Your Final 2-Week Push
$27B
Valentine's Day
Market Size
|
60%
Americans Celebrate
(YouGov Data)
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Feb 12-14
SMS "Secret Power"
Window
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With 17 days until Valentine's Day, this is your final push. According to Klaviyo, SMS is your "secret power" for February 12-14 — those last-minute shoppers are checking their phones, not their email.
👫
Expand Beyond Romance
Valentine's shoppers now buy for friends, children, parents, pets, and even themselves. That's a massive untapped revenue opportunity beyond just couples.
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👯
Galentine's Day (Feb 13)
Celebrate friendship with Galentine's promotions. Create "Galentine's packages" at various price points to capture this growing segment.
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🎁
Bundles > Discounts
Rather than discounting products, add value with bundles and gift-with-purchase. This accomplishes multiple goals — higher AOV, perceived value, and margin protection.
Read: 11 Valentine's Marketing Ideas →
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💡 EXAMPLE: TRADE COFFEE
Trade Coffee shares "staff picks" for Valentine's — adding personality and authenticity to recommendations while helping indecisive shoppers choose.
🔄 Post-Holiday Engagement: The 4 Buyer Segments
Holiday customers aren't one group — they fall into four patterns every year. Each requires a different approach:
🎁 The Gift Buyer
Purchased for others, not themselves. Convert them by introducing products they'd buy for themselves — "Treat yourself" messaging works well.
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🏷️ The Discount Buyer
Came for the deal. Build value perception before offering another discount — focus on loyalty and recommendations over price cuts.
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📅 Day 1: Welcome + Thank You
A simple structure works well: thank them, confirm their order, set expectations. The likelihood of another purchase drops sharply without early engagement.
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📅 Day 7: Product Education
Share how to get the most from their purchase. Email handles education and storytelling — use it to build the relationship, not just sell.
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📱 SMS for Time-Sensitive Moments
SMS shines for urgency — flash sales, back-in-stock alerts, shipping updates. Use it for time-sensitive moments that matter, respecting attention.
Read: 8 Post-Holiday Engagement Strategies →
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💡 LOYALTY TIP
Many brands assume loyalty programs are enough. But loyalty comes from behavior that leads to loyalty — not just points. Show customers places where they feel progress.
📋 Q1 Operations: Your Post-Holiday Reset
In January, the goal shifts from speed to refining. Use the data generated during the rush to optimize for the next surge.
🔍 Run Your "Post-Mortem"
Was it at the packing stations? A slotting issue? Identify where delays and errors happened during peak season. Use Q1 to fix root causes.
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📦 Inventory Reconciliation
Conduct a comprehensive inventory reconciliation. Use slower volumes to reset your accuracy to 99%+ for the year ahead.
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🏭 Optimize Layout & Flow
Q1 is the ideal time to optimize layout, material flow, and labor productivity. As order volumes slow, leading companies use this window to upgrade facilities for the next surge.
Read: Q1 Intralogistics Optimization →
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📱 Platform News: TikTok, Amazon & Shopify
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TikTok Confirms US Operations + New Fulfillment Network
ByteDance confirmed TikTok will continue US operations. Even bigger: TikTok is planning a new fulfillment network expected to launch by end of 2026. Sellers can list on TikTok while still fulfilling through existing channels.
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Amazon: No FBA Fee Increases in 2026
Good news for sellers: Amazon confirmed no increase in US referral or FBA fees for 2026. CEO Andy Jassy noted that many of Amazon's cultural initiatives were tied to retention, not just transactions.
View: 2026 FBA Fee Summary →
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Shopify Winter '26: B2B & AI Updates
Winter '26 Edition brings unified B2B and DTC operations — no more managing orders in separate systems. Shopify also confirmed merchants will appear in AI-driven shopping on platforms like ChatGPT and Perplexity.
Read: Shopify B2B Roundup →
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🎤 NRF 2026: From Optimization to Relevance
NRF 2026 highlighted how quickly retail AI is evolving. The dominant theme: relevance at scale.
🤖 AI Shift: Optimization → Relevance
Retail conversations at NRF 2026 pointed to a clear shift from AI for optimization to AI for relevance — making every customer interaction feel personalized and timely.
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💬 Real-Time Purchase Support
This shift became concrete when retailers showcased AI agents providing real-time purchase support — not just chatbots, but intelligent assistants that understand context and can complete transactions.
Read: NRF 2026 Trends (Voyado) →
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🗓️ Upcoming Events & Key Dates
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Super Bowl LX
🏈 5 days away — snacks, TVs, party supplies surge
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Galentine's Day
👯 Friendship celebration — create Galentine's packages
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Valentine's Day
💕 17 days away — $27B market, final push is NOW
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Presidents' Day
🇺🇸 Major sale weekend — mattresses, appliances, home goods
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