The numbers from Black Friday through Cyber Monday look triumphant. U.S. shoppers spent $44.2 billion over the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, with Cyber Monday hitting $14.25 billion. CP24: From November 1 to December 1, Adobe Analytics tracked total season spend at $137.4 billion, a 7.1% year-over-year increase.

But here's what the headlines don't tell you: According to data from early December, consumers did not feel like this was a strong year for them. The emotional reality behind the celebratory charts tells a different story—BFCM may go down as a record-setter for retailers. Still, for consumers, it was a season of strain, strategy, and skepticism.

This matters because understanding consumer sentiment is as important as watching sales numbers. When people feel worse about the economy, even as they spend more, behavioral changes follow.

What this means for your December strategy: Your messaging needs to acknowledge value-seeking rather than celebrate price. Promotional language that emphasizes "smart shopping," "deals that matter," and "saving you money" will resonate better than "biggest sale ever."$6.2 billion in sales with transactions peaking at $5.1 million per minute.​

At the end of Cyber Monday, shoppers told the National Retail Federation they had about 53% of their holiday shopping remaining.

This is the most underrated fact in retail right now. Everyone focuses on Black Friday/Cyber Monday, but December is where the marathon actually happens. A record 202.9 million consumers shopped during the five-day Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday period, the largest turnout since the NRF began tracking this metric in 2017. CNBC But that's just the opening ceremony.

Your opportunity: The shoppers who still need to buy gifts in December tend to be more intentional and less price-resistant than the early-season crowd. They're past the "waiting for the best deal" phase and moving into "I need to complete this purchase" mode. That shifts your negotiation power.

Green Monday on December 8 was positioned as the second Monday in December, approximately 10+ days before Christmas, making it the psychological deadline for standard shipping before last-minute urgency kicks in.

If you missed it or didn't participate, don't panic. Your December isn't over—it's actually just getting started.

The critical dates ahead:

The key insight: The five highest-yield promotional windows are: (1) Prime Big Deal Days, (2) Cyber Week, (3) Green Monday, (4) Free Shipping Day weekend, and (5) Super Saturday. These windows account for a disproportionate share of Q4 revenue.​

The AI shopping trend from Black Friday isn't slowing. AI is changing how consumers shop for holiday gifts. This holiday season, traffic from AI sources (LLMs) to retail sites is expected to increase by 515–520% compared with the 2024 holidays. Adobe

Seventy-five percent of consumers plan to use AI to find deals and compare prices this season, and 67% plan to use AI for gift ideas. Webgility

But here's what most retailers are still getting wrong: AI visibility requires fundamentally different optimization than traditional search. Shoppers are using AI to compare deals, generate gift ideas, and find products through non-traditional discovery channels. The shift from keyword searches to conversational, long-tail search queries with personalized recommendations is reshaping how media budgets are planned. Digiday

Your December action items:

Seventy percent of Cyber Week orders were made on mobile devices, and mobile's share of Christmas Day online sales is expected to be 65% or higher. Webgility

But mobile shopping quality varies wildly. Test your experience ruthlessly:

Simple ways to improve the holiday shopping experience include testing orders on multiple devices (iPad grandma's using, not just your premium phone), ensuring free shipping is clearly displayed, and removing unnecessary friction from checkout. Shopify💳 The Hidden Consumer Anxiety You Need to Understand

Here's what separates this 2025 holiday from previous years:

US consumer sentiment has declined sharply, with net sentiment 35% lower than the 2024 peak. The single largest driver is inflation, pricing, and overall affordability. Consumers are approaching holiday purchases more deliberately—deciding what matters most, where to scale back, and what feels worth the splurge. McKinsey & Company

Seventy-nine percent of respondents believe tariffs will push prices higher, and 80 percent cite inflation as their top shopping concern. Households earning more than $200,000 plan a 9% increase in spending, while those earning less than $50,000 plan to cut back by 2%. KPMG

The K-shaped economy is evident in the December data. While 49 percent report earning more than last year, 48 percent say their income has fallen, and one in five reports a drop of 25% or more. KPMG

Tactical implication: Your audience isn't monolithic. High-income shoppers want premium, convenience, and assurance. Lower-income shoppers are hunting ruthlessly for deals and trading down on quantities. Your messaging and product recommendations need to be segmented accordingly.

These are the final dates to ship for Christmas delivery in the continental U.S.:​

USPS:

UPS:

FedEx:

Retailer Order Deadlines for Christmas Delivery:

Here's a behavioral insight that changes how you approach late-December marketing:

For years, retailers assumed cart abandonment signaled lost interest. Holiday 2025 proves otherwise. It is often intentional behavior, especially among younger shoppers: 34% of Millennials intentionally abandoned carts to trigger better offers, and over 30% of Millennials & Gen Z revisited products repeatedly, signaling high intent. Wunderkind

Up to 33% subscribed to email/SMS purely for discounts. What might traditionally be interpreted as "indecision" or "drop-off" is in many cases a purposeful signal—shoppers are inviting brands to negotiate. Wunderkind

What this means: Your cart abandonment emails aren't failing because customers don't want the product. They're failing because you're not addressing the specific friction point—usually price or shipping cost. Make your re-engagement campaigns tactical: "Free shipping if you order today" or "Use code FINISH for 15% off" hits harder than generic "don't forget your cart" messaging.

Cross-border ecommerce is projected to grow at a 28.3% faster rate than global ecommerce through 2030. Key stats:​

To capture this opportunity, offer localized payment methods, multi-currency options, and transparent information on customs and duties at checkout.

The National Retail Federation predicts retail sales in November and December will grow between 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024, exceeding $1 trillion in holiday season sales for the first time. National Retail Federation

But that $1 trillion is being captured by retailers who understand that December is not a continuation of BFCM—it's an entirely different selling season with different consumer psychology, different urgency drivers, and different offer structures.

Consumers shopping in mid-December aren't endlessly comparison shopping. They're trying to complete purchases. Recognize that shift in your messaging, and you'll capture the second half of the holiday season that most retailers leave on the table.